LONDON (May 24, 2018) – Solar analysts at IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO), a world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions, will gather at the SNEC 12th International Photovoltaic Power Generation and Smart Energy Exhibition & Conference in Shanghai, China, on May 27-30, 2018.
Edurne Zoco, research director for solar and energy storage at IHS Markit, will deliver one of the keynote speeches at the Conference Opening of SNEC 2018 on May 27, entitled “The disruptive power of solar technology: Towards decentralization and digitalization of the energy landscape.” Zoco will discuss key opportunities, drivers and challenges of the solar industry in this new energy time, characterized by an increasing contribution of renewable sources to the energy mix, increasingly decentralized energy systems and digitalized tools.
Sam Wilkinson, associate director for energy storage at IHS Markit, will deliver a keynote speech at the SNEC Global Mobile Energy Conferenceon May 28, entitled “The Development of the Battery Market, and Impact for the Power Sector.” Wilkinson will discuss key developments, and challenges in the battery sector as well as identify opportunities. He will also discuss the battery sector’s impact on the distributed power generation.
Separately, after last year’s success, IHS Markit will hold its second solar workshop at Jumeirah Himalayas Hotel, Shanghai, on May 29. Top solar and energy storage experts will present their analyses and insights on the global PV demand, module supply chain, technology and energy storage, including the following:
Global solar PV demand to record 113 GW in 2018 driven by strong demand in China
Global solar photovoltaic (PV) demand is forecast to hit another annual record of 113 gigawatts (GW) in 2018, propelled by strong demand anticipated in China. Global solar installations will grow 19 percent in 2018, similar to the 20 percent year-on-year growth in 2017. China will once again dominate global PV demand, reaching 53 GW, and comprising almost half (47 percent) of the total market, according to PV Installations Tracker by IHS Markit. Strong demand from the Chinese market is expected to remain on the back of continuing policy support, a successful transition from a market that had been dominated by large ground-mount projects, and strong momentum in the distributed-PV (DPV) sector. In particular, the fourth quarter of 2018 -- with 34 GW of new global PV installations -- is forecast to be the largest quarter in PV history.
“Demand in China will once again shape the global PV market,” Zoco said. “This year China will have feed-in tariff deadlines in the second and fourth quarters, which will create two sharp installation peaks.”
Capacity of advanced module technologies to jump
According to the latest PV Module Advanced Technologies Report – 2018: Half-Cell, Shingle and Bifacial Modules by IHS Markit, the total installed capacity of advanced PV module technologies, such as half-cell, bifacial and shingle, is forecast to significantly increase in next three years, from less than 10 percent of total module capacity this year to over 30 percent by 2021. In particular, bifacial module capacity is estimated to grow 200 percent from 2018 to 2021 and half-cell module capacity is forecast to reach at least 10 percent of total manufacturing capacity by 2021.
Global battery energy storage installations to reach 130 GWh from 2018 to 2025
Energy storage is considered to be critical to enabling power systems that are heavily reliant on renewable energy, and batteries will play an important role in this transition. According to Grid-Connected Energy Storage Market Tracker by IHS Markit, 130 gigawatt hour (GWh) of battery energy storage will likely be installed between 2018 and 2025.
The flexibility and scalability of batteries will enable them to deliver a wide range of application from optimizing solar self-consumption in the residential sector to large-scale systems that provide grid balancing services or provide renewable firming. The applications driving the market will vary significantly in specific regions.
“China will play an important role in the stationary energy storage market, becoming one of the three largest markets, behind the United States and South Korea, in terms of annual installations in 2018,” Wilkinson said. “It will remain a major market in coming years, largely driven by an increasing need to integrate large amounts of renewables, as it pursues highly aggressive targets for solar deployment in particular.”
Li-ion batteries to dominate energy storage market
Average prices of lithium ion batteries have plunged 70 percent between 2012 and 2017. With the fall in the price, Li-ion batteries are expected to account for 85 percent of new installations in the stationary energy storage sector between 2018 and 2025.
Significant investment in manufacturing capacity and economies of scale have allowed such dramatic price drop. Battery manufacturers have targeted the electric vehicle market, which offers a significant growth opportunity and will be the principal driver of the Li-ion battery industry. In fact, the stationary energy storage market will represent just 6 percent of li-ion battery shipments in 2018. As a result, the pace of the electric vehicle market will define the supply and demand balance, and pricing outlook for Li-ion batteries in the stationary energy storage sector. IHS Markit predicts flat pricing for Li-ion batteries in 2018 due to rapid growth in demand from the EV market.
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