IHS forecasts that global solar PV installations will grow by 30% in 2015 to reach 57.3 GW. At the same time it has revised its estimates for installations in 2014 to 44.2 GW (previously 45.1 GW). Key findings from the upcoming IHS PV Demand Tracker are shown below:
- Global solar PV installations are forecast to reach 57.3 GW in 2015, a 30% annual increase.
- Solar installations are estimated to have reached 44.2 GW in 2014 - a 14% increase over 2013.
- Installations are forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5% over the next five years to reach 73 GW in 2019.
- European solar demand fell by 30% in 2014 to 7.9 GW, but is forecast to return to growth in 2015 and reach 9.4 GW.
- Largest absolute growth was recorded in APAC which grew by 5.5 GW to reach 26.4 GW, accounting for 60% of total global demand.
- Detailed project analysis revealed that China installed 12.6 GW of new solar capacity in 2014. It should be noted that the official estimate from China's NEA of 10.6 GW represents the sum of PV projects connected to the grid in AC terms, whilst IHS data shows installations in DC terms.
- IHS has raised its forecast for China installations in 2015 to 17.3 GW. This is lower than the recent NEA guidance for connected AC capacity by province. Furthermore IHS has identified China as being the biggest risk to its global forecast given the aggressive growth targets set and its historical inability to hit these targets.
- IHS forecasts that Japan will retain its position as the world's second largest solar market in 2015 and grow by 4% to 10.4 GW.
- The USA installed an estimated 7 GW of new PV capacity in 2014 and is forecast to install more than 9 GW in 2015 before peaking in 2016.
- Other than the aforementioned countries, the next largest driver of growth is predicted to be the UK. IHS forecasts 3.5 GW of installations in 2015, driven largely by the rush to beat the ROC deadline at the end of March.
- Longer term, IHS has cut its forecast for global PV installations by 1.5 GW in 2018, largely due a 3 GW reduction in its outlook for the European market. Increases to its forecast for Asia partly offsets this. Despite the reduction, IHS still forecasts more than 50 GW of new PV capacity to be installed in Europe over the next five years.