Our recently released report forecast the heat measurement market to exceed $1 billion in 2018. The key drivers will be increasing demand from Russia, Turkey and China, along with expected legislation derived from the European Energy Efficiency Directive of 2012 (EED) which is forecast to drive growth in several countries.
IHS predicts that EMEA will account for 70% of revenues for heat measurement devices in 2018 while Asia (almost entirely China) is forecast to account for the other 30%. Revenue growth in Europe is forecast to be driven primarily from the passing of the EED, which, albeit weakly, recommends the measurement of all billing heat connections. While Germany is currently the only country which has mandated the installation of heat measurement, similar legislation is expected when countries such as France, Italy and the UK start implementing their own legislation on the heels of the EED. IHS predicts this to happen by 2016 and revenues from the sale of heat measurement devices from these three countries alone are forecast to increase from $60 million in 2013 to $130 million in 2016.
It is widely believed in the industry that these three countries will be the pioneers in implementing heat measurement laws. Regulation is already in place for electricity and gas metering in these countries and it’s only a matter of time that heat measurement will get the same attention.
New policies in China are forecast to make it account for 30% of the $1 billion total market for heat measurement devices. Although most of this growth is forecast for heat meters, the market for HCAs is predicted to swiftly rise with China’s pending heat measurement mandates. This is a forecast to drive the Chinese market for heat measurement solutions to more than $315 million in 2020.
International heat meter manufacturers are looking to gain market share in China as this market continues to expand, with heat meter revenues increasing by 60% from 2014 to 2020. The Chinese market for HCAs will be seeing high growth as well starting in 2016 as new policies are predicted to take effect and older buildings will need to be retrofitted with HCAs.