Slower growth than originally forecast is expected for the electronic access control market in Mexico and Brazil, according to a recent regional report published by IHS.
Earlier in 2014, IHS forecast a CAGR of nearly 11% for the Mexican market through 2018; however, this growth was found to be a bit bullish and has been revised down to 7.6%. This adjustment is a reflection of a lowered GDP as well as delayed infrastructure projects. Additionally, city surveillance projects were found to receive a larger share of funding which led to the purchase of other security equipment such as CCTV cameras. Mexico’s slowdown is expected to be short-term, with access control sales predicted to pick-up from late 2015 as projects start once again to come online.
A similar revision was made for Brazil, with its five-year (2014 to 2018) forecast changed from 11.4% to 6.3%. While the same factors of a weak economy and drop in infrastructure investment are to blame, so is the national election and low sales before the World Cup. Brazil’s national election starts in October 2014 and this is likely to delay most major government projects for a year or longer. Billions of dollars were invested in the World Cup; however sales of access control were tame compared to what was expected. This situation is predicted to be short, and high growth return as the remainder of the Growth Acceleration Program is implemented.
Other key findings from the report include:
- Telecommunications is forecast to be one of the strongest end-user sectors for Mexico over the next several years.
- New, hot-topic trends such as NFC and ACaaS (hosted/managed access control) remain a niche market across Mexico.
- The strongest end-user industries in Brazil are transportation, utilities and energy and commercial. PAC2 continues to be a big part behind the growth, while other sectors continue to lag behind.
- Biometrics is estimated to be a large market in Brazil, especially finger print scanners.
- IHS expects that Brazil will quickly rebound and continue to increase access control adoption. As wages increase, many Brazilian companies will be looking to reduce the human element and automate processes.