In 2012, strong medium voltage (MV) motor drive sales growth in North America offset weaker sales in China, which resulted in global MV Drive sales growing by 6% to $2.6 billion. In the latest IHS medium voltage motor drive study, MV drive sales are predicted to increase by 8% in 2013, with widely diverging growth rates by region.
In North America, an unconventional energy revolution for shale gas and oil has led to stronger MV drive sales in the American oil & gas industry. IHS predicts that MV drive sales growth in the Americas will remain above 14.5% in 2013 and 9.5% in 2014.The outlook for the American MV drives market is highly dependent on how the oil & gas industry performs. In 2012, IHS estimates that over 35% of American MV drive sales went into the oil & gas industry. The forecast for MV drive sales into the oil & gas industry is complex because MV drive sales into upstream, midstream, and downstream applications are predicted to diverge from 2013 to 2017. In the midstream oil & gas segment, MV drives are used for compressors and pumps for pipeline transportation of oil & gas. MV drive sales growth is predicted to slow in 2014, primarily as an accelerated build out has slowed as North American governments come to an agreement on the future of LNG exports and further pipeline expansion across the United States.
In Asia Pacific, China made up two-thirds of the MV drives market by revenue in 2012 while the Rest of Asia made up about one-third. Each region exhibited widely diverging MV drive sales growth in 2012. In China, overcapacity in metals, cement, and shipbuilding resulted in weaker MV drive sales in 2012, while in the Rest of Asia MV drive sales grew rapidly in 2012, led by sales of MV drives in Southeast Asia excluding Australia.
In 2014, MV drive sales growth is predicted to increase in China as a different set of industries begin to demand MV drives, while in the Americas a resurgent Latin America and continued strength in the United States and Canada is predicted to result in the Americas growing fastest globally in 2014. “A seismic shift in MV drive demand by industry over the next five years is leading to a very different MV drives market. In this challenging economic environment, it is more important than ever to understand what is driving these changes,” says IHS Analyst Rolando Campos.