Market Watch

US Video Retail and Rental Forecasts Revised

March 07, 2011

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  • Retail DVD spending exceeded expectations in 2010; retail BD spending fell shor
  • Rental now expected to generate over half of video spending (again) by 2015

IHS Screen Digest has revised its forecasts for the US physical video retail and rental markets in light of the continued stronger-than-expected performance of the DVD format in 2010.

Spending on retail DVD purchases was slightly better than expected in 2010; Blu-ray Disc (BD) slightly worse. Near-term projections for DVD sales have been increased and long-term projections for BD reduced - although spending on BD is still expected to surpass spending on DVD in 2013 (accounting for 54% of the total at that time). Total consumer spending on disc purchases is expected to shrink from just over $10bn in 2010 to slightly less than $7.1bn in 2015. That will bring once-dominant retail (62% of the overall physical-plus-digital/VOD home entertainment business as recently as 2007) down to 39% of an $18bn market, a total that is down about 2% from 2010 levels.

The high-definition format also performed less well at rental in 2010, though the overall rental market was in line with expectations as it grew to represent 38% of total spending on physical video in 2010. Subscription rental increased to 42% of rental spending and 16% of total physical video spending in 2010. Kiosk share of rental spending grew to 22% (8% of total spending). IHS Screen Digest expects consumer rental spending to account for around 51% of total spending on physical video in 2015 - a spot it hasn't occupied since sometime in early 2001.

Find Out More > iSuppli | Screen Digest U.S. Video Market Research

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